Climate

The analysis of spatial and temporal variability in the number of non-Gaussian extreme anomalies of climatic parameters was carried out for both the initial time series and synoptic variability in the troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere over the period 1979–2018, based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. There are predominantly three types of empirical distribution densities at 850 hPa, each characterizing the processes of advective and convective heat transfer. At the beginning of the 21st century, compared to the end of the 20th century, there was an increase in the number of anomalies in vertical wind speed and specific humidity for the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, there is an increase in the number of zonal wind speed anomalies in the low and middle latitudes. Regions with the maximum number of anomalies are primarily located over the continents, while for vertical wind speed anomalies, they are predominantly over the oceans. The application of R/S analysis and multifractal analysis has established that the identified tendencies (which are persistent processes) will continue in the identified regions. The time series of non-Gaussian anomalies (both initial and synoptic scales) exhibit a long-term memory of approximately four years, and synoptic extreme anomalies were found to be more predictable. Full article

The increasing drought frequency poses a significant threat to global and regional river systems and ecosystem functioning, especially in the complex topographical Buffalo River catchment area of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. This study explored the impact of drought on riparian vegetation dynamics using the Normalize Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Transformed Difference Vegetation Index (TDVI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) from satellite-derived Landsat data from 1990 to 2020. The least-squares linear regression and Pearson’s correlation coefficient were used to evaluate the long-term drought in riparian vegetation cover and the role of precipitation and streamflow. The correlation results revealed a moderate positive correlation (r = 0.77) between precipitation and streamflow with a significant p-value of 0.04 suggesting consequences on riparian vegetation health. Concurrent with the precipitation, the vegetation trends showed that precipitation increased insignificantly with less of an influence while the reverse was the case with the streamflow in the long term. The results show that the NDVI and TDVI were significant indices for detecting water-stressed vegetation in river catchment dynamics. Much of these changes were reflected for MNDWI in dry areas with a higher accuracy (87.47%) and dense vegetation in the upper catchment areas. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) revealed the inter-annual and inter-seasonal variations in drought-stressed years between 1991–1996, 2000–2004, 2009–2010, 2015, and 2018–2019, while 2020 exhibited slight sensitivity to drought. The findings of this study underscore the need for heightened efforts on catchment-scale drought awareness for policy development, programs, and practices towards ecosystem-based adaptation. Full article

Al Ain, near Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, is characterized by hot desert climate with high temperatures, aridity, and almost no rain. Several truncated earthen walls were discovered at the historic house of Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa, a component of the World Heritage Cultural Sites. These remains are preserved in situ, outdoors, protected in glass showcases for public display. As this situation is not documented in the literature, the local Authority has requested to study the showcase environment to optimize conservation. The solar radiation and the projected shades have been modeled over one year; the temperature and humidity inside and outside the showcases, as well as the moisture content, have been measured to assess the potential preservation risks. The paper presents the results, i.e., the direct solar radiation generates extreme conditions of greenhouse effect with extremely high temperatures and forces evaporation from the remains. During the night, the excess moisture condenses on the inner surface of the glass panes, forming large drops that affect viewing and are dangerous for conservation. The repetition of evaporation–condensation cycles accumulates soluble salts on the remains. The paper discusses mitigation strategies (e.g., shading, ventilation, and cooling, to reduce the greenhouse effect) to improve conservation and fruition. Full article

Climate variability and change are already having a negative impact on the health of tens of millions of Africans through exposure to sub-optimal temperatures and extreme weather conditions as well as increasing the range and transmission of infectious diseases. This study aims to identify climate risks and the vulnerability of health systems as well as individual coping strategies in the city of N’Djaména. To achieve this, we adopted a methodology combining both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Meteorological data on wind, temperature, and rainfall were collected at daily and monthly intervals from the National Meteorological Agency in N’Djaména. Qualitative data were collected via focus group discussions with targets of the city’s health system and quantitative data were collected from the population on the basis of oriented questionnaires. The results show that rising temperatures with heat waves, regular flooding, and strong winds are the major climate risks identified. These have numerous impacts and effects on the city’s health system due to the following vulnerability factors most recognized by city dwellers: insufficient medical equipment in health facilities (IEME), the fragile nature of people’s physiological state in the face of climatic risks (CFEP), and the failure of city sanitation strategies and policies (DSPA). This study proposes a set of recommendations for transformational adaptation of the healthcare sector, which remains vulnerable to climate risks. Full article

The validated influence of urban biophysical structure on environmental processes within urban areas has heightened the emphasis on studies examining morphological patterns to determine precise locations and underlying causes of urban climate conditions. The present study aims to characterise morphological patterns describing the distribution of Land Surface Temperature (LST) based on a prior classification of biophysical variables, including urban density (building intensity and average height), surface characteristics, shortwave solar radiation (broadband albedo), and seasonal variations in vegetation cover (high, medium, and low levels), retrieved from multisource datasets. To describe the distribution of LST, the variables were calculated, classified, and subsequently, analysed individually and collectively concerning winter and summer LST values applied in an urban neighbourhood in Madrid, Spain. The results from the analytical approaches (observation, correlations, and multiple regressions) were compared to define the morphological patterns. The selection of areas resulting from the morphological patterns with the most unfavourable LST values showed agreement of up to 89% in summer and up to 70% for winter, demonstrating the feasibility of the methods applied to identify priority areas for intervention by season. Notably, low and high vegetation levels emerged as pivotal biophysical characteristics influencing LST distribution compared to the other characteristics, emphasising the significance of integrating detailed seasonal vegetation variations in urban analyses. Full article

Early warning systems (EWS) facilitate societies’ preparedness and effective response capabilities to climate risks. Climate risks embody hazards, exposure, and vulnerability associated with a particular geographical area. Building an effective EWS requires consideration of the factors above to help people with coping mechanisms. The objective of this paper is to propose an approach that can enhance EWSs and ensure an effective climate risk resilience development. The paper focuses on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and highlights the issues with EWS, identifying weaknesses and characteristics of EWS to help in climate risk adaptation strategies. The SADC region was chosen as the context because it is a climate variability and change hotspot with many vulnerable populations residing in rural communities. Trending themes on building climate risk resilience were uncovered through scientific mapping and network analysis of published articles from 2008 to 2022. This paper contributes to on-going research on building climate risks resilience through early warning systems to identify hidden trends and emerging technologies from articles in order to enhance the operationalization and design of EWS. This review provides insight into technological interventions for assessing climate risks to build preparedness and resilience. From the review analysis, it is determined that there exists a plethora of evidence to support the argument that involving communities in the co-designing of EWS would improve risk knowledge, anticipation, and preparedness. Additionally, Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies provide effective tools to address existing EWS’ weaknesses, such as lack of real-time data collection and automation. However, 4IR technology is still at a nascent stage in EWS applications in Africa. Furthermore, policy across societies, institutions, and technology industries ought to be coordinated and integrated to develop a strategy toward implementing climate resilient-based EWS to facilitate the operations of disaster risk managers. The Social, Institutional, and Technology model can potentially increase communities’ resilience; therefore, it is recommended to develop EWS. Full article

In recent decades, southern Africa has experienced a shift towards hotter and drier climate conditions, affecting vital sectors like agriculture, health, water, and energy. Scientific research has shown that the combination of high temperatures and unreliable rainfall can have detrimental effects on agricultural production. Thus, this study focused on assessing climate variability, with implications on rangelands in the Limpopo Province of South Africa over 38 years. Historical climate data from 15 stations, including rainfall and minimum and maximum temperatures from 1980 to 2018, were analysed. To achieve the main objective, various statistics including mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation (CV) were computed for all variables across four seasons. The results highlighted significant variability in rainfall, with Musina (71.2%) and Tshiombo (88.3%) stations displaying the highest variability during the September-to-April season. Both minimum and maximum temperatures displayed low variability. The Mann–Kendall test revealed both increasing and decreasing trends in minimum temperatures and rainfall across different stations. Notably, there was a significant increase in maximum temperatures. This study provides valuable climate information for decision makers, aiding in the planning and management of agricultural activities, particularly in understanding how climate variations affect forage availability in rangelands. Full article

In this study, we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, forced by present-day atmospheric composition and coupled to a Slab Ocean Model, to simulate the state of the climate under grand solar minimum forcing scenarios. Idealized experiments prescribe time-invariant solar irradiance reductions that are either uniform (percentage-wise) across the total solar radiation spectrum (TOTC) or spectrally localized in the ultraviolet (UV) band (SCUV). We compare the equilibrium condition of these experiments with the equilibrium condition of a control simulation, forced by perpetual solar maximum conditions. In SCUV, we observe large stratospheric cooling due to ozone reduction. In both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH), this is accompanied by a weakening of the polar night jet during the cold season. In TOTC, dynamically induced polar stratospheric cooling is observed in the transition seasons over the NH, without any ozone deficit. The global temperature cooling values, compared with the control climate, are $0.55\pm 0.03$ K in TOTC and $0.39\pm 0.03$ K in SCUV. The reductions in total meridional heat transport outside of the subtropics are similar in the two experiments, especially in the SH. Despite substantial differences in stratospheric forcing, similarities exist between the two experiments, such as cloudiness; meridional heating transport in the SH; and strong cooling in the NH during wintertime, although this cooling affects two different regions, namely, North America in TOTC and the Euro–Asian continent in SCUV. Full article

Extreme heat has been linked to increased mortality and morbidity across the globe. Increasing temperatures due to climatic change will place immense stress on healthcare systems. This review synthesises Australian literature that has examined the effect of hot weather and heatwaves on various health outcomes. Databases including Web of Science, PubMed and CINAHL were systematically searched for articles that quantitatively examined heat health effects for the Australian population. Relevant, peer-reviewed articles published between 2010 and 2023 were included. Two authors screened the abstracts. One researcher conducted the full article review and data extraction, while another researcher randomly reviewed 10% of the articles to validate decisions. Our rapid review found abundant literature indicating increased mortality and morbidity risks due to extreme temperature exposures. The effect of heat on mortality was found to be mostly immediate, with peaks in the risk of death observed on the day of exposure or the next day. Most studies in this review were concentrated on cities and mainly included health outcome data from temperate and subtropical climate zones. There was a dearth of studies that focused on tropical or arid climates and at-risk populations, including children, pregnant women, Indigenous people and rural and remote residents. The review highlights the need for more context-specific studies targeting vulnerable population groups, particularly residents of rural and remote Australia, as these regions substantially vary climatically and socio-demographically from urban Australia, and the heat health impacts are likely to be even more substantial. Full article

The consequences of climate change are arising in the form of many types of natural disasters, such as flooding, drought, and tropical cyclones. Responding to climate change is a long horizontal run action that requires adaptation and mitigation strategies. Hence, future climate information is essential for developing effective strategies. This study explored the applicability of a statistical downscaling method, Bias-Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD), in downscaling climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and then applied the downscaled data to project the future condition of precipitation pattern and extreme events in Cambodia. We calculated four climate change indicators, namely mean precipitation changes, consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), and maximum one-day precipitation (rx1day) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios, which are SSP245 and SSP585. The results indicated the satisfactory performance of the BCSD method in capturing the spatial feature of orographic precipitation in Cambodia. The analysis of downscaled CMIP6 models shows that the mean precipitation in Cambodia increases during the wet season and slightly decreases in the dry season, and thus, there is a slight increase in annual rainfall. The projection of extreme climate indices shows that the CDD would likely increase under both climate change scenarios, indicating the potential threat of dry spells or drought events in Cambodia. In addition, CWD would likely increase under the SSP245 scenario and strongly decrease in the eastern part of the country under the SSP585 scenario, which inferred that the wet spell would have happened under the moderate scenario of climate change, but it would be the opposite under the SSP585 scenario. Moreover, rx1day would likely increase over most parts of Cambodia, especially under the SSP585 scenario at the end of the century. This can be inferred as a potential threat to extreme rainfall triggering flood events in the country due to climate change. Full article

Meteorological observations over the last four decades are of paramount importance to investigating ongoing climate change. An important issue is the quality and reliability of the climatic series, which are fundamental prerequisites to drawing the correct conclusions. Homogeneity tests are used to detect discontinuities whose interpretation is facilitated by metadata availability. In this work, daily minimum and maximum temperature measurements collected in Padua, Italy, between 1980 and 2022 are examined. During this period, the weather station of Padua center underwent many changes in location or instruments; therefore, some tests have been used to identify and remove their effects and obtain homogeneous series. Some well-known absolute tests have been applied to investigate the shift in the mean value: Standard Normal Homogeneity test (SNH), Buishand U and range tests, Pettitt test, F-test, and STARS. Relative tests have been applied too, using several stations nearby Padua and two reanalysis datasets (ERA5 and MERIDA) as reference series to enhance the picture of the local situation and provide more robust conclusions. The applied tests identify change-points in the years in which a change in instrument or the location of the station has occurred, confirming that these changes have compromised the homogeneity of the series. The sub-series obtained, splitting the observations in correspondence with these change-points, have been homogenized with respect to a selected period. The corrected series of the minimum and maximum temperatures are more coherent with the modern warming trend. The transfer functions to be applied to future measurements of minimum temperature have been calculated, while the series of maximum temperature measurements can be directly extended. Full article

In Ethiopia, the impacts of climate change are expected to have significant consequences for agriculture and food security. This study investigates both past (1981–2010) and future (2041–2070) climate trends and their influence on the length of the growing season (LGS) in the North-Western Ethiopian highlands. Climate observations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, while the best performing and highest resolution models from the CMIP5 experiment and RCP6 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project and representative concentration pathway 6) were used for the analysis. Standard statistical methods were applied to compute soil water content, evaluate climate variability and trends, and assess their impact on the length of the growing season. Maximum temperature (tasmax) and minimum temperature (tasmin) inter-annual variability anomalies show that the region has experienced cooler years than hotter years in the past. However, in the future, the coolest years are expected to decrease by −1.2 °C, while the hottest years will increase by +1.3 °C. During the major rainfall season (JJAS), the area has received an adequate amount of rainfall in the past and is very likely to receive similar rainfall in the future. On the other hand, the rainfall amount in the season February to May (FMAM) is expected to assist only with early planting. For the season October to January (ONDJ), the rainfall amount may help lengthen the growing season of JJAS if properly utilized; otherwise, the season has the potential to destroy crops before and during the harvesting time. The soil water content changes in the future remain close to those of the past period. The length of growing seasons has less variable onset and cessation dates, while in the future, the length of the growing period (LGP) of 174 to 177 days will be suitable for short- and long-cycle crops, as well as double cropping, benefiting crop production yield in the North-Western Ethiopian highlands in the future. Full article

Many modern frameworks for community resilience and emergency management in the face of extreme hydrometeorological and climate events rely on scenario building. These scenarios typically cover multiple hazards and assess the likelihood of their occurrence. They are quantified by their main characteristics, including likelihood of occurrence, intensity, duration, and spatial extent. However, most studies in the literature focus only on the first two characteristics, neglecting to incorporate the internal hazard dynamics and their persistence over time. In this study, we propose a multidimensional approach to construct extreme event scenarios for multiple hazards, such as heat waves, cold spells, extreme precipitation and snowfall, and wind speed. We consider the intensity, duration, and return period (IDRP) triptych for a specific location. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by developing pertinent scenarios for eight locations in Greece with diverse geographical characteristics and dominant extreme hazards. We also address how climate change impacts the scenario characteristics. Full article

Monitoring rainfall in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA), which comprises most of the largest tropical rainforest and largest river basin on the planet, is extremely important but challenging. The size of the area and land cover alone impose difficulties on the operation of a rain gauge network. Given this, we aimed to evaluate the performance of nine databases that estimate rainfall in the BLA, four from gridded analyses based on pluviometry (Xavier, CPC, GPCC and CRU), four based on remote sensing (CHIRPS, IMERG, CMORPH and PERSIANN-CDR), and one from reanalysis (ERA5Land). We found that all the bases are efficient in characterizing the average annual cycle of accumulated precipitation in the BLA, but with a predominantly negative bias. Parameters such as Pearson’s correlation (r), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and Taylor diagrams (SDE), applied in a spatial analysis for the entire BLA as well as for six pluviometrically homogeneous regions, showed that, based on a skill ranking, the data from Xavier’s grid analysis, CHIRPS, GPCC and ERA5Land best represent precipitation in the BLA at monthly, seasonal and annual levels. The PERSIANN-CDR data showed intermediate performance, while the IMERG, CMORPH, CRU and CPC data showed the lowest correlations and highest errors, characteristics also captured in the Taylor diagrams. It is hoped that this demonstration of hierarchy based on skill will subsidize climate studies in this region of great relevance in terms of biodiversity, water resources and as an important climate regulator. Full article

Climate change impacts occur at varying spatial scales requiring appropriately scaled responses. In impoverished rural areas, adapting to or mitigating the effects of climate change is challenging, with any short-term impairment to precarious livelihoods likely triggering negative community responses even if people are aware of long-term benefits. The paper will discuss a community-based carbon sequestration project in eastern Iran. It started in 2003 and since then has been expanded widely. It was nominated by UNDP as one of 10 transformative projects in Asia/Pacific in 2016. Over the past 20 years, the project has targeted improving the livelihood of the local communities while addressing local measures to adapt to/mitigate climate change. The paper elaborates on the formation of village development groups as pivotal drivers of success by highlighting local income-generating schemes and project documentation. Key lessons for climate change adaptation can be learnt and are applicable to other developing countries. Extreme poverty in rural areas facing climate change could be tackled through implementing bottom-up approaches in which local communities can be respected and engaged in co-leadership and planning. Full article

The Umlindi newsletter was developed to provide information towards climate advisories, considering, for instance, drought conditions, presented in a relevant manner for the agricultural and disaster sectors in South Africa. This newsletter, which is disseminated on a monthly basis, provides information derived from climate-related monitoring products obtained from an integration of remote sensing and in situ data from weather stations. It contains useful indicators, such as rainfall, vegetation, and fire conditions, that provide an overview of conditions across the country. The present study demonstrates how these natural resource indices are integrated and consolidated for utilization by farmers, policy-makers, private organizations, and the general public to make day-to-day decisions on the management and mitigation of natural disasters. However, there is a need to expand these baseline observation initiatives, including the following: (1) forecasting future conditions to strengthen coping mechanisms of government, farmers, and communities at large; and (2) incorporating information on other natural disasters such as floods and extreme heat. In the context of South Africa, this information is important to improve disaster preparedness and management for agricultural productivity. In a global context, the Umlindi newsletter can be insightful for developing and disseminating natural resources information on adaptation to and mitigation of climate change and variability impacts to other regions facing similar risks. Furthermore, while international organizations also provide natural resource information, the Umlindi newsletter may be distinguished by its regional focus and linkages to individual communities. It bridges the gap between global environmental data and local decision-making by illustrating how global scientific knowledge may be applied locally. Full article

In small island regions, the influence of climate change assumes particular relevance. In the Azores archipelago, made up of nine islands, the geographical circumstances, oceanic condition, territorial dispersion, land use model and other physiographic constraints reinforce and enhance the vulnerability of the islands to changes in current weather patterns. Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections are used for the northeast Atlantic region to evaluate daily extreme climate events in large scale for the Azores region. Results shows changes in the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days, the annual number of wet days, and especially in the annual number of tropical nights. Despite limitations due to the lack of spatial detail, the large-scale framework suggests changes that may be enhanced by topography, particularly with respect to precipitation. The conclusions point to the need to establish standard rules in the processes of design, reviewing and/or amending territorial management instruments at the municipal scale in the Autonomous Region of the Azores, with the goal of adapting to a different climate from the recent past. Full article

This study analyzes insurance claim data from an 11-county area in the Florida Panhandle following the landfall of Hurricane Michael. The data includes 1467 non-mobile home structures, with 902 (61.5%) storm-damaged structures in Bay County. The analysis focuses on Wind Mitigation form 1802. Specifically, building design variables were analyzed via linear regression as to their influence on the percent claim loss. The building design variables included total square footage, dwelling construction type, age of the building, roof type, roof cover type, roof deck attachment type, roof to wall attachment, the presence of secondary water resistance (or sealed roof deck), opening protection type, and roof shape. Results show that building design variables for insurance claims have a high predictive value relative to a Category 5 hurricane event. However, the predictive values of building design variables are also dependent on the dwelling’s proximity to the coast, its location relative to the strong or weak side of the storm, the diameter of the storm, and other wind field variables. Full article

An attempt has been made to explore the relative contributions of moisture feedback processes on tropical intraseasonal oscillation or Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We focused on moisture feedback processes, including evaporation wind feedback (EWF) and moisture convergence feedback (MCF), which integrate the mechanisms of convective interactions into the tropical atmosphere. The dynamical framework considered here is a moisture-coupled, single-layer linear shallow-water model on an equatorial beta-plane with zonal momentum damping. With this approach, we aimed to recognize the minimal physical mechanisms responsible for the existence of the essential dispersive characteristics of the MJO, including its eastward propagation ($k>0$), the planetary-scale (small zonal wavenumbers) instability, and the slow phase speed of about ≈5 m/s. Furthermore, we extended our study to determine each feedback mechanism’s influence on the simulated eastward dispersive mode. Our model emphasized that the MJO-like eastward mode is a possible outcome of the combined effect of moisture feedback processes without requiring additional complex mechanisms such as cloud radiative feedback and boundary layer dynamics. The results substantiate the importance of EWF as a primary energy source for developing an eastward moisture mode with a planter-scale instability. The eastward moisture mode exhibits the highest growth rate at the largest wavelengths and is also sensitive to the strength of the EWF, showing a significant increase in the growth rate with the increasing strength of the EWF; however, the eastward moisture mode remains unstable at planetary-scale wavelengths. Moreover, our model endorses that the MCF alone could not produce instability without surface fluxes, although it has a significant role in developing deep convection. It was found that the MCF exhibits a damping mechanism by regulating the frequency and growth rate of the eastward moisture mode at shorter wavelengths. Full article